2023: Buhari’s Ambush Strategy As 40 Presidential Aspirants Remains In APC, PDP

Two weeks to the nomination of presidential candidates for the 2023 General Election, 40 aspirants remain in the races for the tickets of the two dominant parties in Nigeria.

Twenty-five of the aspirants submitted the expression of interest and nomination forms they bought for N100 million from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) at the close of the submission of the forms Friday night.

However, the forms purchased in the names of former President Goodluck Jonathan and Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Godwin Emefiele, were not returned. Also, the Minister of Labour and Productivity, Chris Ngige, announced his withdrawal from the race hours after President Muhammadu Buhari presided over a valedictory session for him and nine other ministers who had bought forms to participate in the APC primaries for different offices.

The APC began the screening of aspirants to all the other offices in Abuja on Saturday but announced May 23 for the 25 presidential hopefuls.

The aspirants, who will slug it out for the APC flag at the two-day national convention of the party at the end of May, if they pass the screening and do not step down from the race, are a national leader of the party, Bola Tinubu; Vice President Yemi Osinbajo; former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi; former Minister of Niger Delta Development, Godswill Akpabio; former Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation, Ogbonnaya Onu, former Imo State Governor, Rochas Okorocha and former Ogun State Governor, Ibikunle Amosun.

Others are a pastor, Tunde Bakare; Cross River State Governor, Ben Ayade; his Ebonyi State counterpart, Dave Umahi; Ekiti State Governor, Kayode Fayemi; Minister of State, Education, Emeka Nwajiuba; former Senate President, Ken Nnamani; Kogi State governor, Yahaya Bello; Jigawa State governor, Mohammed Badaru, and former Zamfara State governor, Ahmed Yerima.

Also on the list are a senator, Ajayi Borroffice; the only female aspirant, Uju Ohnenye; a pastor, Nicholas Nwagbo; former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole; Senate President Ahmad Lawan; AfBD Managing Director, Akinwumi Adesina; former Minister of State, Petroleum, Timipre Sylva; former Minister of Information, Ikeobasi Mokelu and businessman Tein Jack-Rich.

PDP’s Aspirants

The opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) concluded its screening of the aspirants who paid N40 million for its presidential nomination forms two weeks ago. Two of the aspirants were disqualified but the party is yet to officially disclose their identities.

The 17 who stood for the screening are former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, a former Senate President, Bukola Saraki; Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal; former Senate President Pius Anyim.

Others included former Minister of Federal Capital Territory and Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed; former Minister of State for Education and Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike; Akwa Ibom State Governor, Udom Emmanuel; 2019 PDP vice presidential candidate and former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi; former Ekiti State Governor, Ayodele Fayose; United States-based medical doctor, Nwachukwu Anakwenze, and media mogul, Dele Momodu.

Also in the race are an investment banker and economist, Mohammed Hayatu-Deen; a pharmacist, Sam Ohuabunwa; former Speaker of Abia State House of Assembly, Cosmos Ndukwe; Charles Ugwu; and the only female aspirant in the race, Tareila Diana.

Jonathan, Emefiele no show

It turned out to be much ado about nothing. For a few weeks, former President Goodluck Jonathan was the star attraction in the APC presidential race, even though he is a member of the rival PDP and has not been active in partisan politics since his reelection loss in 2015.

The odd development followed rumours that some power brokers or “Aso Rock cabal” had offered him the ticket. Their motivation for the gift was reported to be the fact that the former president can only do one more term of four years, having been previously elected to the office in 2011.

According to the grapevine, the governor of Yobe State, Mai Buni, who at the time was the interim national chairman of the APC, had approached Mr Jonathan and urged him to run for president again on the ticket of the ruling party. A report on April 23 by the Punch stated that the former president gave a condition for accepting the offer: that his candidature should be endorsed by President Buhari – meaning in plain language that he should be pronounced the consensus candidate of the party. Mr Buni was said to have fancied himself as the running mate to Mr Jonathan and the potential beneficiary when his term runs out in 2027.

The rumours continued even after Mr Buni reluctantly ended his tenure as interim chairman, but remained outlandish until April when Mr Jonathan welcomed a group to his office in Abuja which had come to demand that he ran for the APC ticket.

Last week, a group dropped a N100 million cheque to pick the APC nomination forms for Mr Jonathan. But he immediately denied any connection to the group in a statement by his media aide.

However, he did not deny interest in running in the 2023 presidential election with the APC. According to an associate of his, the former president was only uncomfortable with being numbered among the crowd of aspirants in the party.

Eventually, the form obtained in the name of Mr Jonathan was one of the few not returned to the APC. And so, the former president will not be the APC flag bearer next year – to the relief of his supporters and the other aspirants who had dreaded the unfair advantage he was asking for.

Emefiele too

The CBN governor was involved in a similar drama to Mr Jonathan’s. His office does not anticipate he would dabble in partisan politics. But a group also picked the APC forms in his name, following which he too dissociated himself from the group. But while he was doing so, he made it clear that he may run, and a few days later went to court to affirm his right to do so while still being the CBN governor.

On Thursday, he was summoned to the presidential villa. It was not explained what he heard from the president, but after the meeting, a seemingly disoriented Mr Emefiele made shocking remarks to State House correspondents in which he said he was having fun over the excitement about his political intention, even if the matter was giving his compatriots a heart attack.

On Friday, Mr Emefiele did not return his forms, thus ending his prospect of picking the APC ticket, at least for next year’s election. But he will likely continue to face calls for him to stand down from an office many said he has denigrated by his controversial involvement in partisan politics.

No zoning

The two parties have thrown their races open, to the consternation of southern and middle belt groups which had been demanding that the South produce the next president. The PDP formally jettisoned zoning and has five northerners among its aspirants.

On its part, the APC has not taken a formal position on the issue. However, four northerners are among the aspirants who filed their nomination forms – the Senate President, governors of Kogi and Jigawa, and a former Zamfara State governor.

But while the northerners are mostly considered the top contenders for the PDP ticket, they do not yet enjoy the same status in the APC on which platform Mr Buhari is concluding his eight-year tenure next year.

However, some analysts think this could change if the PDP ticket goes to the North. It, however, remains to be seen who among the northern quartet in the APC has the clout to match his putative PDP rival for northern votes.

Buhari’s ambush tactics

President Buhari, a retired general, is very much familiar with the military ambush tactics, and it appears that he likes using them in dealing with his political party, the APC.

Whenever there is a crisis in the party, the president keeps everyone guessing before striking unexpectedly. The same strategy was used during the turbulent tenure of Adams Oshiomhole when he had the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party dissolved and had it replaced with a caretaker committee with Yobe governor Mai Mala Buni at the head.

The president deployed the same surprise move earlier this year when he ordered the Governor of Niger State, Sani Bello, to take over from Mr Buni. But in another twist, the president made a U-turn and allowed the Yobe State governor to remain on the party chair, after being advised that sacking the Yobe governor could take the party into conflict with the Electoral Act.

The president did a similar thing in the build-up to the National Convention that brought in the current National Working Committee. Many national chairmanship aspirants bought the N20 million form to contest and campaigned vigorously for months across the country, only for the president to ambush them hours before the convention and endorse Abdulahi Adamu for the position.

On Wednesday, Mr Buhari struck again by directing all his appointees aspiring for elective offices in the 2023 elections to resign on or before May 16.

This wait and pounce strategy best describes this week in the APC presidential race.

On Monday, Nigerians had woken up to hear that the Governor of the Central Bank was indeed interested in running for president as had been speculated. Mr Emefiele instructed his lawyer, Mike Ozekhome, to file a case at the Federal High Court in Abuja, asking the court to issue an interim order stopping the Independent National Electoral Commission and the Attorney General of the Federation from disqualifying him from running for president while still being the CBN governor.

The judge did not grant the interim order but instead ordered that INEC and the AGF be served to state their case in court on why the order should not be granted. The action of Mr Emefiele cleared all doubts that the groups that brought the N100 million nomination form and procured dozens of branded vehicles for his presidential campaign in the colours of the APC did so at his behest.

It emerged from the court case that Mr Emefiele had been a card-carrying member of the ruling party since 2021.

Jiti Ogunye, a constitutional lawyer, in an analysis published by PREMIUM TIMES, said Mr Emefiele’s participation in partisan politics violates the constitution, the CBN Act and public service rule.

“The CBN Act does not contemplate, let alone tolerate or accommodate, a CBN governor, who is obligated by law to devote all his time while in office to the pursuit of the mandate of the CBN, being a registered member of any political party in Nigeria, and certainly does not accept a CBN Governor running for a legislative or executive political office during his term of office as CBN Governor,” Mr Ogunye had argued.

More so, Mr Emefiele’s political affiliation presented another challenge for INEC, as it raised concerns about the security of the sensitive material that it usually keeps in CBN vaults.

Until the last hours, the presidency was as quiet as a cemetery on the matter. Mr Buhari ignored the clamour for the removal of Mr Emefiele, while his other appointees continued to buy forms to participate in APC primaries. 10 ministers bought the forms but chose to remain in office despite the provisions of section 84 (12) of the Electoral Act.

Six of them, the Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, Minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Godswill Akpabio, Minister of Science and Technology, Ogbonnaya Onu, Minister of Labour and Employment, Chris Ngige, Minister of State for Petroleum, Timipriye Sylva, and the Minister of State for Education, Emeka Nwajiuba, all procured the N100 million nomination forms.

The Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, and the Minister of State for Mines and Steel, Uche Ogah, bought governorship forms of Kebbi and Abia states respectively. Also, the Minister of Women Affairs, Pauline Tallen, and the Minister of State for Niger Delta Affairs, Tayo Alasoadura, are gunning for senatorial seats in Plateau and Ondo states respectively.

Only Mr Nwajiuba tendered a resignation letter, dated April 28, to enable him to face his campaign.

In his usual style, Mr Buhari did not utter a word, until Wednesday during the weekly Federal Executive Council meeting. The Minister of Information and Culture, Lai Mohammed, briefing journalists later, said the president had ordered all appointees to resign on or before May 16.

The Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Boss Mustapha, later issued a circular to that effect.

Coincidentally, the decision of the president followed the verdict of the Court of Appeal on the contentious section 84(12) of the Electoral Act. The Appeal Court had dismissed the case because the applicant had no legal basis to institute the suit, although the court declared the section to be unconstitutional.

After the presidential announcement, Messrs Akpabio and Onu announced they had tendered their resignation letters.

PREMIUM TIMES reported how the directive of the president was giving some of the aspirants cold feet on their ambition. After much dilly-dallying, the AGF announced his withdrawal from the Kebbi race.

This strategy of an ambush will be giving the presidential aspirants sleepless nights, as Mr Buhari continues to keep mum on the call for a consensus candidate.

Tinubu’s man in Kano teams up with Kwankwaso

Controversial ex-lawmaker, Abdulmumin Jibrin, has decamped from the ruling APC and joined his former boss, Rabiu Kwankwaso, in the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). Mr Jibrin, until he moved, was the Director-General of Tinubu Support Group, which is campaigning for the presidential bid of the former Lagos governor.

The growing strength of the NNPP is forcing pundits to review their predictions for the 2023 general election in Kano State. The state had consistently produced the largest votes in past elections for the APC. But with Mr Kwankwaso as its presidential candidate, NNPP is being tipped to affect the calculations of the two major parties in Kano.

The K4 states (Kano, Katsina, Kaduna and Kebbi) delivered the margins that delivered the 2015 and 2019 elections to the APC. Even though the party, through Governor Guanduje, remains in control, the 2019 governorship elections showed that Mr Kwankwaso is a formidable force in the state. The APC won the 2019 governorship election by 8,982 votes. To complicate the situation, Mr Buhari, who won the state by over a million votes in 2019, will not be on the ballot in 2023.

The NNPP has been on a recruitment drive in the state, enjoying defections from the ruling party and the PDP.

Mr Tinubu last week tried to reconcile Messrs Jibrin and Ganduje, but the effort failed. The state will probably be a three-horse race in the presidential election for the APC, PDP and NNPP.

Lawan in the race

On Monday, the Senate President, Ahmad Lawan, officially joined the presidential race, bringing the number of aspirants from the north in the APC to four. The others are a former Governor of Zamfara State, Sani Yerima, and the governors of Kogi and Jigawa states, Yahaya Bello and Abubakar Badaru, respectively.

Mr Lawan’s aspiration got a big endorsement from the Whip of the Senate, Orji Uzor Kalu.

“In the absence of a South Easterner being president of Nigeria in 2023, I have my full support for a North Easterner. This is because it would be the closest to the equity, fairness and Justice everyone is talking about. It further means that justice is on its way to the South East,” Mr Kalu said in a statement.

Mr Lawan is the only APC aspirant from the North-east, a region that is yet to produce a president for Nigeria.

Daily News Reporters